Federal Reserve

MAY 2020

Investing When There’s No Playbook: 5 Questions to Assess the COVID-19 Market Environment

As the repercussions of COVID-19 evolve, many investors have come to terms with the fact that there is simply no normal playbook for a market defined by a pandemic. With that in mind, Doug Cohen, managing director, portfolio management, delves into the broad parameters of five questions that are particularly pertinent, including the timeline for a medical breakthrough, emergence of a new paradigm, and the market and Fed’s place in economic recovery.


Part I: Record Economic Expansion and Reduced Recession Indicators Drive Consensus Views for 2020

Doug Cohen, managing director, portfolio management introduces us to consensus views for 2020 that prolong the longest US economic expansion on record extending into its 12th year. New year consensuses favor dwindling recession indicators and stabilized credit conditions. In Part I of his observations, Doug also shares his take on the Fed, election odds, and investor sentiments around the bull market.


Part II: Record Economic Expansion and Reduced Recession Indicators Drive Consensus Views for 2020

In the second and final synopses of his market outlook, Doug Cohen, managing director, portfolio management addresses lingering consensuses surrounding geopolitical shocks, overseas market performance, stocks and earnings, and trade policy concerns.


Debating the Likelihood of an Economic Recession, Interest Rake Hike, and Inflation Acceleration

As we enter 4Q19, managing director Doug Cohen revisits his predicted probabilities from 1Q19 for the likelihood of an economic recession, a Fed interest rate hike, and inflation acceleration in 2019. Did Doug’s forecasts hold true?


Summertime and the Livin’ is Easy? Three Takeaways from the Market Movements of Summer 2019

Managing Director Doug Cohen's latest market update cites that, if nothing else, August was a reminder that we are seemingly always just a tweet away from a new market narrative. Doug cites the continued evidence of slowing global economic growth by the Fed’s rate cut and the renewal of trade tensions as causes of negative economic headlines that appear to be taking a toll on business capital spending.